The Washington Commanders are double-digit underdogs on the road Monday night as they wrap up the Week 8 slate against the resurgent Kansas City Chiefs.
The Commanders (3-4) enter the game without injured quarterback Jayden Daniels, while the Chiefs (4-3) have won consecutive games and are working to keep pace with the Denver Broncos in the AFC West.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Kansas City has extended to as much as an 11-point favorite at some sportsbooks, with the consensus sitting at 10.5 points Monday afternoon. The public is expecting a one-sided game, with the Chiefs’ spread line backed by 80% of the money at BetRivers.
With Kansas City expected to control the game, it’s little surprise that its -910 moneyline has drawn 92% of the money.
The Chiefs have won the past eight meetings, and they have won the first half in each of their past seven games overall when playing an opponent with a losing record.
The 48-point total points line has seen the Over backed by 69% of both the total money and bets placed.
PROP PICKS
–Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 15+ Receiving Yards (-650 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, where better payouts are available for Kelce at 25+ Yards (-292), 40+ (-122), 50+ (+132) and 60+ (+200). While Kelce has undoubtedly lost a step, he remains an important part of the passing game. He has at least 26 yards in all seven games this season and at least 47 in all but one. The only game in which he was targeted fewer than four times was last week’s 31-0 blowout of Las Vegas.
–Commanders WR Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+215 at BetRivers): Samuel has at least one touchdown reception in four consecutive road games. That includes each of the first three road games with Washington this season and one in Week 16 for San Francisco last year.
THE INSIDE EDGE
The Commanders are fifth-best in the NFL this season with a 59.6% success rate on plays including play-action passes, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable engine. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense is the third-worst in the league in allowing a 57.1% success rate against play-action passes.
INJURY REPORT
While Daniels (right hamstring strain) will miss his third start in eight games, Samuel and fellow starting wide receiver Terry McLaurin will both be active.
The Commanders are without their top three defensive ends. This week they placed Dorance Armstrong (knee) on injured reserve, where he joined Deatrich Wise (quadriceps) and Javontae Jean-Baptiste (pectoral). Defensive tackle Daron Payne (toe) is questionable.
Kansas City placed rookie defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott on IR on Tuesday after he suffered a season-ending ACL tear against the Raiders.
The Chiefs ruled out tackle Josh Simmons (personal) and said guard Trey Smith (back) is doubtful.
Hunt is dealing with a bone bruise on his knee, but coach Andy Reid told reporters, “He’s going to be OK, but we’ll have him sit out today.”
As for Smith, who is having back spasms, Reid said, “It’s getting better. We’ll just see how it goes.”
CHIEFS GET THEIR GROOVE BACK
After posting 38 total points in losses to the Chargers and Eagles to begin the season, the Chiefs have scored 28 or more points in each of their past four games.
Patrick Mahomes threw for three touchdowns in each of the past two wins and has 1,131 yards, 11 touchdown passes and one interception in his past four games.
Wide receiver Rashee Rice, playing in his first regular-season game due to a suspension, had a team-high seven catches for 42 yards and a pair of scores against Las Vegas.
“He didn’t play the fourth quarter and probably wanted to,” Reid said. “He came out feeling good, so that was a positive. Now he gets another week of practice under his belt.”
The Chiefs face a Commanders defense that ranks 27th, allowing 364.3 yards per game, including 238.3 (25th) through the air. Against Dallas, Washington allowed 409 yards.
“Our focus needs to be sharper,” Commanders coach Dan Quinn said this week. “That’s the bare minimum and we’re going to dig in to find out how we improve upon that.”
Washington has only three takeaways, tied for second worst in the league entering Week 8. In addition, the Commanders are struggling to prevent big plays and get off the field on third down.
“We have the guys and coaches to fix those mistakes,” linebacker Bobby Wagner said. “We can’t really do anything about what’s happened thus far. All we can do is make sure that it’s better moving forward.”
PREDICTION
The Commanders are sledding uphill entering Monday night, with a backup quarterback and a reeling defense going on the road against a resurgent Chiefs offense. Covering the spread, much less winning the game, will be a tall order for Washington. –Chiefs 33, Commanders 20
